The following axioms are my investing beliefs and various
concepts I've
learned regarding investing. Mosthave been learned through direct
experience.
These rules are designed to be interpreted fairly narrowly.
Also, a
statement of the positive does not imply a statement against the
inverse. For
example, if a rule says to avoid a stock that has property A, the
rule doesn't
mean you should buy a stock that does not have property A.
- Don't recommend stocks to people. Discussion is O.K. but don't
recommend. There's just no reason to do so
- Don't gamble.
- There are times when the only way to lose is not to play.
Conversely,
there are times when the only way to win is not to play. These
are bull/bear
markets. The shifting points are hard to identify and the shift
points tend to
be larger than the entire bull/bear period. But for those time
periods where
the market is clearly in one or the other you should act
appropriately.
- People "talk up" what they want to be true, especially about
stocks
and economy. Generally, people will only see the good things
about stocks they
own or are considering. Try not to have blinders.
- It's too difficult to pick stocks, to have non-financial
related
rules limiting your choices. If a stock has moral issues you can
do more to fix
it from the inside anyway. As an outsider you don't have a voice.
As an owner
they have to listen to you.
- REIT's cause extra paperwork hassle on your tax form. Consider
this
before investing in one.
- There can be non-financial reasons to buy a stock. That's fine
and do
so if you wish but it's not investment.
- Look to Valuation of a stock. Valuation is related to the P/E
but
that isn't everything. Other factors include dividend, modified
book value
(liquid assets(cash or similar-debt).
- Consider a modified PEG. However, don't use the listed one.
Make your
own understanding that in most cases 2 years is the horizon on
Growth. Anyone
who expects growth in growth outside of 2 years is guessing.
Don't trust
them.
- Big name/popular stocks have a premium based on their name.
This
doesn't actually hurt their growth as they're likely to keep
being public
icons/heroes but it does increase the risk (failure gives them
farther to fall)
and makes them unable/unlikely to pay a quality dividend.
- People should invest in stocks for a perceived financial
return. They
don't but they should. This return is called a dividend. People
shy away from
high dividends for several reasons. One reason is a perception
that a company
should be using it's money to grow - this leads to companies
growing badly and
wastes dollars that could be returned to the shareholder. Another
reason people
shy away is the perception of double taxation. Slightly true but
also not that
significant. Many items are double taxed, arguably every dollar
is taxed equal
to it's multiplier. Also, the total tax is the issue and that is
based on both
parties combined tax rate. That might be low or high, it depends
on your (and
their) financial status.
- When investing for dividends make sure they can continue to pay
their
dividends into the far future.
- People don't evaluate "small quantities" well. Buying shortly
before
the dividend won't cause the stock to drop in value over time by
the full
dividend amount.
- Because of the above issue there is a hole in the market that
a
computer buying system run by a broker could possibly exploit.
Buy before div-x
and sell after. This might be the hole that Matt G. found for
his
software.
- Don't buy stocks of companies that have bad customer
service.
- Don't buy "bad" (ex. dying, losing) stocks.
- Companies that are going down, they just go under. There's no
salvage
for the shareholders. It doesn't matter what their assets are,
closing down a
stock will burn up all available $$$. This is probably because
the directors
are working for their own short term best interests and don't
have the
shareholders interests in mind. So it's in their best interest to
distribute
company funds to themselves and their friends (co-employees.) So
they'll eat
through all the cash that should have been returned to the
owners.
- Number #1 in an industry is good, especially if your knowledge
in the
industry is weak. If you know an industry then you might consider
other
companies but if you don't you should stay with #1 or probably
stay out.
- Do write-up sheets about a stock. (See below).
- Monitor a stock based on the write-up sheet. Know how things
have
changed (and even occasionally update in writing the sheet.)
Knowing when a
stock isn't what you bought & possibly want is really
important.
- Exit Conditions are key. Make them, know them follow them.
- Your advantage in picking a stock comes from a knowledge
advantage
that you have vs. investing market as a whole. Invest based on
your knowledge.
If you're investing outside of your knowledge do your
homework.
- Monitor a stock for 3 days before buying it. This will help you
get a
feel for the stock avoid impulse buys and lots of quick
mistakes.
- Stocks have an inherent advantage in growth vs. loss. On the
upside
you can gain many hundred %. On the down side you can lose only
100%. This is
the huge advantage in long positions. Consider carefully the risk
in shorts and
be very, very careful in assuming a short position. Limiting this
loss is a
really strong argument for options.
- Options are insurance policies. Use them as such but hopefully
never
need to use them. If you do you might be gambling.
- Take your time after choosing a stock. After determing a
quality
stock consider it and watch it for at least 30 days before
buying.
- Being right 3 times out of 5 is an investing genius.
Sample write-up Form.
Name
Symbol
07/05/01
Industry:
Risk:
Expected Growth:
Volatility:
Domain Expertise:
Knowledge & Information Weaknesses:
Customer Service Quality:
Personal Interactions:
Reason for buying:
Short-Term expectations:
Long-Term expectations:
Exit Conditions: